Predicting the NFL wild-card races

0
4
Predicting the NFL wild-card races
play
McFarland starting to appear for Eagles’ ‘explosive’ offense (1:forty Four)

Booger McFarland says that he’s starting to appear for the “pieces morph collectively” for the Eagles’ offense and appears to be to be like to the Cowboys’ defense. (1:forty Four)

7:00 AM ET

  • Aaron SchatzFootball Outsiders

    Shut

    • Founder and Editor-in-chief of Footballoutsiders.com
    • NFL analyst for ESPN Insider

The Los Angeles Rams clinched the first NFL playoff attach closing week. More groups, in particular Kansas City and Unique Orleans, are more most likely to clinch playoff spots this week. True now, all eight division leaders hold their divisions in bigger than 70 percent of Football Outsiders’ season simulations. Handiest Dallas and Pittsburgh are under 85 percent.

As a change of taking a examine overall playoff probabilities today time, we are going to listen to the odds of the next batch of groups to raise one of many Four wild-card playoff spots. Our listing of groups leaves out the eight division leaders, but we are going to make certain that to present the most up-to-date probabilities for the listed groups to reverse the standings and hold their divisions. No less than 1 of the groups under comes again to raise its division in fifty nine percent of our simulations.

We have simulated the season 30,000 times the utilization of Football Outsiders DVOA ratings to get the playoff odds we exercise under. For a paunchy clarification on how we calculate every crew’s playoff odds, survey the bottom of the article.


AFC

Los Angeles Chargers (9-Three)

Wild-card probabilities: 87.6 percent

Baker Mayfield


Hit upon: Patrick Mahomes


Hit upon: Matthew Stafford


Hit upon: Josh Rosen

This week, the Chargers climbed previous the Unique Orleans Saints into the No. Three attach in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. In our weighted DVOA ratings, which give more strength to more most up-to-date video games, the Chargers are No. 2, trailing handiest their division opponents in Kansas City. The Chargers are one of handiest two groups ranked in the tip 10 in DVOA for both offense and defense. (The second crew is rather of a surprise, and we are going to get to them under.)

Mix quality of play with a 9-Three file, and it’s nearly very now not most likely for the Chargers to blow a playoff attach no matter getting a difficult December time desk. Los Angeles surges to raise its division (and knocks Kansas City down to a wild card) in 9.7 percent of simulations, making its total playoff probabilities ninety seven.Three percent.

Read More

Leave a Reply